Assessment Report on short-lived climate pollutants and mobility trends in
Nigeria
Introduction
Short-lived climate pollutants
(SLCPs) are harmful atmospheric pollutants that, as the name suggests, remain
in the atmosphere for a relatively short period of time but have adverse
climate and health impacts. The atmospheric global warming potential of SLCPs
is considered much higher than that of CO2 despite their limited
duration in the air. The main short-lived pollutants responsible for man-made
green house effects are black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone, and
hydrofluorocarbons. The
transport sector is one of the dominant sources of greenhouse gas emissions in
the world.
Due to the threat that SLCPs pose
to climate change and public health, reducing emission of short-lived climate
pollutants (SLCP) is increasingly gaining momentum in the world with many
countries choosing to address this under the Climate and Clean Air Coalition
(CCAC). In 2017, Approximately 670,000 premature deaths in Africa were linked
to ambient and indoor air pollution. Of these deaths 114,000 were recorded in
Nigeria of which 70 000 were children under the age of 5 years.
Nigeria has been a member of the
CCAC since 2012 and is committed to mitigating against harmful emissions within
the country. As part of the Supporting National Action Planning (SNAP)
initiative, the country embarked on developing a national short-lived climate
pollutant action plan. The plan was approved in May 2019 and provides the most
recent data on SCLP in the West African Country.
An assessment of SCLP from the Transport Sector in Nigeria
The
transport sector in Nigeria is an important source of Black Carbon. The country has a car
ownership of about 4.65 million which translates to 29 cars per 1000
population. With increased income and higher purchasing power, these figures
are set to more than double in the following years. Over seventy-five percent
(75%) of urban dwellers use public transport which is characterized by
minibuses, taxis and motorcycle taxis. Majority of these commuter vehicles are
aging used vehicles that are highly polluting leading to a high concentration
of black carbon, NOx, SO2 and CO in the major cities thus posing a high public
health risk.
An assessment carried out by
partners within the CCAC revealed that road transport accounted for 98.3% of
the total transport emissions while rail and domestic shipping accounted for
the remainder. Urban buses were established to be the main source of black
carbon in Nigeria followed by heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) then passenger cars. Diesel
vehicles accounted for ninety-seven (97%) of the total black carbon emissions. Passenger
cars, on the other hand, seen to be leading in the emission of methane, carbon
monoxide and carbon dioxide. Motorcycles contributed significantly to the
emission of particulate organic carbon. Despite these glim observations, it is
important to mention that the country is making great strides towards cleaner
fuels and vehicles in a bid to reduce harmful emissions. For instance, import
and emission regulation are gradually being introduced with the current import
age of passenger cars being at eight (8) years, below ten (10) for buses and
below fifteen (15) for trucks.
Figure 1 Percentage of Total Road
Transport Emissions of different Pollutants from different Vehicle categories
in 2010
The assessment assumed that with
the current mobility trends in Nigeria, the baseline scenario would be a
maintained 1.54% annual increase in the size of the overall vehicle fleet with
cleaner vehicles entering the market over time due to the import and emission
regulations. Without drastic interventions and the status quo maintained, it was
projected that the first slight decline in black carbon emissions, for
instance, would only be realized as late as 2050.
Figure 2: Black Carbon Emissions from
the Road Transport Sector from 2010-2050 under the Baseline Scenario
Nigeria has submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution
(NDC) outlining its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions thereby
moving closer to achieving global air quality and climate targets. As part of
the action plan to reduce short-lived climate pollutants, the country has
identified 22 mitigation strategies distributed per sector. According to the
action plan, implementation of these strategies could effectively reduce the
total black carbon and methane emissions by 82% and 62% by 2030. Similar
reduction margins could be realized across other air pollutants not limited to
Sulphur dioxides, nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide.
Below is a summary of the strategies relevant to mobility
work in Africa.
1.
Transport
|
SLCP
Mitigation Measures
|
Targets
|
|
1.
Renewal of urban bus fleet in
Lagos
2.
Adoption of CNG Buses in Nigeria
3.
Introduction of low sulphur
Diesel and Petrol
4.
Elimination of high emitting
vehicles that do not meet vehicle emission standards
5.
Reduction of vehicle journeys by
car through transport modal shifts
|
· 5000
new buses in Lagos complete and Danfo buses fully replaced by 2021
· 25%
all Buses converted to CNG by 2030
· 50
ppm diesel fuel introduced in 2019; 150 ppm petrol introduced in 2021
· Euro
IV limits met by all vehicles by 2030
·
500, 000 daily journeys shifted from road
to rail & waterways
|
2.
Energy
|
SLCP
Mitigation Measures
|
Targets
|
|
1.
Expansion of National
Electricity Coverage
2.
Increase share of electricity
generated in Nigeria from renewables
|
· 90%
of the Population have access to electricity grid by 2030
·
30% electricity generated using renewable
energy in 2030
|
3.
Industry
|
SLCP
Mitigation Measures
|
Targets
|
|
1.
Improved Energy Efficiency in
industrial Sector
|
·
50% improvement in energy efficiency by
2050
|
Works Cited
The Federal Ministry of Environment (December 2018,
Approved May 2019). Nigeria National Action Plan (NAP) to Reduce Short
Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs). Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC).